Investigating the Claim of Mass Deaths from COVID-19 Vaccines in Germany
Recently, Elon Musk amplified a provocative claim suggesting that between 20,000 and 60,000 people in Germany have died as a result of COVID-19 vaccination. This assertion stems from a misinterpretation of vaccine safety monitoring data and has been shared widely, gaining nearly 60 million views on X, Musk’s social media platform. The claim is based on a testimony by Dr. Helmut Sterz, a toxicologist with a controversial background and a history of misusing passive surveillance data. Experts in epidemiology and vaccine safety, including Dr. Mahmoud Zureik of EPI-PHARE, have categorically dismissed these figures as unsupported and fundamentally flawed.
Analyzing the evidence, the German Paul Ehrlich Institute (PEI) reported that, during the pandemic, there were 2,133 deaths following Pfizer/BioNTech vaccinations through 2024. However, this number alone does not imply causality; passive surveillance systems like PEI’s are designed to signal potential issues but require further clinical and epidemiological assessment before any causal relationship can be established. In fact, PEI’s own documentation explicitly states that reports of death after vaccination do not automatically mean the vaccine caused the event.
The Flawed Methodology of Extrapolating Deaths
The core of the false claim lies in Dr. Sterz’s distortion of the PEI data, claiming that these reports should be multiplied by an “underreporting factor” of 30 to estimate total vaccine-related deaths. This approach is both methodologically incorrect and misleading. As Dr. Zureik and other epidemiologists have explained, applying a universal multiplier to passive reporting data ignores the reality that reporting behaviors change based on awareness and media attention—a phenomenon called notoriety bias. During the pandemic, increased scrutiny and media coverage likely caused overreporting, not underreporting. Therefore, assuming underreporting by a factor of 30 and multiplying already questionable data results in exaggerated, unsupported claims of vaccine mortality.
Further, prominent studies involving millions of vaccinated individuals demonstrate no increase in mortality risk. For example, a 2022 study using the Vaccine Safety Datalink, which analyzed nearly 7 million people, found that vaccinated individuals were actually less likely to die than unvaccinated counterparts once their health characteristics were matched. Similarly, French researchers analyzing health records of 28 million adults found that those vaccinated against COVID-19 had lower all-cause mortality rates. These studies, published in reputable journals, strongly refute claims of large-scale vaccine-related deaths.
The Importance of Evidence-Based Information
Given the sheer volume of misinformation surrounding vaccine safety, it is vital to rely on rigorous scientific research and official safety monitoring systems. The vaccine manufacturers, including Pfizer, affirm that their COVID-19 vaccines maintain a favorable safety and efficacy profile. Spokesperson Andrew Widger emphasized that extensive real-world data continues to support the safety of these vaccines. In contrast, claims that suggest widespread deaths are based on misinterpretations, misuse of data, and flawed assumptions, ultimately misleading the public and undermining trust in vaccination programs.
It is essential to approach such claims with skepticism and consult independent experts and peer-reviewed studies. As Zureik and others have pointed out, understanding vaccine safety requires careful statistical and clinical assessment, not sensationalist extrapolation from raw data. Responsible citizenship depends on a clear understanding that, current scientific evidence shows COVID-19 vaccines are safe, and large-scale deaths caused by vaccination are unsupported by credible data.
In a democracy, truth and transparency are the bedrock of trust. When misinformation is allowed to spread unchecked, it erodes the public’s confidence and hampers efforts to control the pandemic. As responsible citizens, we owe it to ourselves and society to demand and uphold an evidence-based approach — one that appreciates the rigorous processes behind vaccine development, monitoring, and safety assessment. Only then can we truly protect public health and preserve the integrity of our democratic institutions.














