Investigating the Reality of Noncitizen Voting and Federal Identity Verification Tools
Claims by political figures such as Senator Mike Lee that there are “at least tens of thousands, probably hundreds of thousands” of noncitizens illegally registered to vote in the United States have stirred considerable debate. These assertions are primarily centered around the use of federal tools like the Systematic Alien Verification for Entitlements (SAVE) program, which reportedly flags potential noncitizens on voter rolls. However, an in-depth review of evidence from multiple sources suggests that the actual occurrence of noncitizen voting is exceedingly rare, and the tools used to detect such instances are fraught with inaccuracies and misinterpretations.
The New York Times, citing federal officials, reports that roughly 10,000 potential noncitizens were flagged out of approximately 49 million voter registrations checked across nearly two dozen states over the last year. Importantly, election officials found that a significant portion of these flagged names were, in fact, U.S. citizens. These misidentifications often resulted from data mismatches, outdated records, or unintentional errors by voters or election staff. For example, in Utah, a comprehensive citizenship review concluded that only a handful—less than 1,000—of 2 million registered voters could not be verified as citizens, and none had been found to vote illegally. Similarly, Texas’s initial assessment identified fewer than 3,000 potential noncitizens among over 18 million voters, but subsequent investigations revealed many of these were legitimate citizens.
Experts from the Brennan Center for Justice and Center for Election Innovation & Research have consistently highlighted the high rates of false positives associated with the SAVE program. Jasleen Singh, a senior counsel at the Brennan Center, emphasizes that “noncitizen voting is vanishingly rare”, and that the data flaws inherent in the system mean that many flagged individuals are actually eligible voters. Investigations show that a substantial percentage of flagged names are attributable to clerical errors, misunderstandings of registration questions, or outdated information—errors that lead to misplaced concerns about widespread fraud and border on the misleading. Moreover, as the Heritage Foundation has pointed out, prosecutions for noncitizens voting unlawfully are extremely uncommon, with fewer than 100 convictions reported since 1982, further undermining claims of systemic illegality.
Opponents argue that the push for the Save America Act—which would mandate all states to participate in federal identity verification—is based on overinflated claims and flawed data. In Utah, the state’s top election official reported that a rigorous review of their voter rolls, which included cross-referencing with the SAVE database, identified only one noncitizen who did not vote. Critics like Utah’s Lt. Gov. Deidre Henderson warn that the law could impose immediate burdens on election infrastructure and disenfranchise lawful voters, especially given the inaccuracies associated with the database used. Similar issues have surfaced in Texas, Louisiana, and Missouri, where initial flags of noncitizens were proven false upon detailed review, often revealing clerical mistakes or voter misunderstandings as the root causes.
Given these findings, it becomes clear that sensational claims of hundreds of thousands of illegal noncitizen voters are not supported by the available evidence. The data indicates that noncitizen voting is an extraordinarily rare event, and existing verification tools, including the SAVE program, require significant improvements to yield reliable results. Protecting the integrity of elections is fundamental to a vibrant democracy; however, doing so responsibly demands reliance on factual, thoroughly verified information. As investigations continue and the data is scrutinized, the truth underscores the fact that the risk of widespread noncitizen voting is virtually nonexistent, and policies based on misinformation threaten to undermine confidence, voter trust, and the democratic process itself.